Gent
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.58Bookmakers 65%
Kortrijk
15%
Fair odds 6.75Bookmakers 14%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Gent | Draw | Kortrijk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Elo model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Best price on offer | 1.45 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Gent
Gent are rated 170 points above Kortrijk (1550 to 1380), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Gent
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Gent's chance of winning and takes the same from Kortrijk's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Gent
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.8. Gent score 1.2 a match against an average side (10th in Belgian Pro League); Kortrijk concede 1.6 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Gent DLWLW, lost 6 rating points; Kortrijk LDLWL, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Gent 65%, Kortrijk 14%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Gent
Gent won 5, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GentKortrijkGent
3/10 over 2.5
14 scored
6 conceded
09/03
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/10
10/15
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Kortrijk
6/10 over 2.5
4 scored
22 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/29
09/03
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 55%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Gent | Draw | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gent | 40%2.53 | 3%30.67 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.81 | 13%7.71 | 5%19.49 |
| Kortrijk | 3%28.90 | 5%20.96 | 9%10.64 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Gent wins2Kortrijk wins- L Gent vs Kortrijk 1-2
- W Kortrijk vs Gent 0-1
- W Kortrijk vs Gent 0-2
- W Gent vs Kortrijk 3-2
- W Gent vs Kortrijk 2-1
- W Kortrijk vs Gent 0-4
- D Gent vs Kortrijk 2-2
- L Kortrijk vs Gent 1-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Gent's side.