Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83
Kortrijk
21%
Fair odds 4.84
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Draw | Kortrijk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 25% | 21% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Oud-Heverlee Leuven are rated 62 points above Kortrijk (1442 to 1380), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Oud-Heverlee Leuven's chance of winning and takes the same from Kortrijk's.
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Attack against defence Favours Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Oud-Heverlee Leuven score 1.1 a match against an average side (16th in Belgian Pro League); Kortrijk concede 1.6 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Oud-Heverlee Leuven WDDWD, gained 27 rating points; Kortrijk LDLWL, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Past meetings Neutral
Oud-Heverlee Leuven won 3, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Oud-Heverlee LeuvenKortrijkOud-Heverlee Leuven
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
17 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/03
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/24
11/01
Kortrijk
6/10 over 2.5
4 scored
22 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/29
09/03
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Draw | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 33%3.05 | 4%24.21 | 1%87.72 |
| Level | 19%5.18 | 15%6.83 | 8%12.71 |
| Kortrijk | 3%32.47 | 5%20.24 | 12%8.26 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Oud-Heverlee Leuven wins3Kortrijk wins- L Kortrijk vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2-0
- D Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Kortrijk 1-1
- D Kortrijk vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0-0
- W Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Kortrijk 3-0
- L Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Kortrijk 2-3
- W Kortrijk vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0-2
- L Kortrijk vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2-1
- W Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Kortrijk 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Oud-Heverlee Leuven's side.