Sp Braga
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.57
KuPS
13%
Fair odds 7.49
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sp Braga | Draw | KuPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sp Braga
Sp Braga are rated 130 points above KuPS (1564 to 1433), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sp Braga
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Sp Braga's chance of winning and takes the same from KuPS's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sp Braga
Expected goals 1.8 to 0.7. Sp Braga score 1.2 a match against an average side (5th in Primeira Liga); KuPS concede 1.5 (3rd best defence in Veikkausliiga).
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Last 5 matches Favours Sp Braga
Sp Braga DWLWL, barely moved; KuPS DLDDL, lost 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Sp BragaKuPSSp Braga
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
11 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/09
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
KuPS
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
13 conceded
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sp Braga | Draw | KuPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Braga | 38%2.62 | 2%41.84 | 0%— |
| Level | 22%4.45 | 14%6.93 | 4%25.51 |
| KuPS | 4%28.09 | 5%19.19 | 9%10.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.