Nagoya Grampus
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.57Bookmakers 50%
Kyoto
34%
Fair odds 2.92Bookmakers 24%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Nagoya Grampus: 39% here, 50% with bookmakers; Kyoto: 34% here, 24% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Kyoto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 50% | 25% | 24% |
| Best price on offer | 1.89 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Kyoto
Kyoto are rated 53 points above Nagoya Grampus (1372 to 1319), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nagoya Grampus
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nagoya Grampus's chance of winning and takes the same from Kyoto's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.3. Nagoya Grampus score 0.8 a match against an average side (14th in J1 League); Kyoto concede 1.8 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus LDDWW, gained 23 rating points; Kyoto WDDLL, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Nagoya Grampus
Bookmakers rate Nagoya Grampus higher than the model does: Nagoya Grampus 50% against the model's 39%, Kyoto 24% against 34%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Kyoto
Nagoya Grampus won 1, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Nagoya GrampusKyotoNagoya Grampus
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
17 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Kyoto
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Kyoto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 27%3.71 | 6%16.29 | 2%41.49 |
| Level | 11%9.12 | 16%6.43 | 13%7.93 |
| Kyoto | 1%68.49 | 4%23.98 | 20%5.07 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Nagoya Grampus wins3Kyoto wins- L Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto 1-2
- D Kyoto vs Nagoya Grampus 1-1
- L Kyoto vs Nagoya Grampus 3-2
- D Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto 1-1
- L Kyoto vs Nagoya Grampus 2-1
- W Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto 1-0
- D Kyoto vs Nagoya Grampus 1-1
- D Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto 1-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nagoya Grampus's side.