Bodo/Glimt
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95
LASK
27%
Fair odds 3.67
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bodo/Glimt | Draw | LASK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| Elo model | 66% | 22% | 11% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt are rated 151 points above LASK (1614 to 1463), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bodo/Glimt
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Bodo/Glimt's chance of winning and takes the same from LASK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bodo/Glimt
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.5. Bodo/Glimt score 1.4 a match against an average side (4th in Eliteserien); LASK concede 1.5 (3rd best defence in Austrian Bundesliga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours LASK
Bodo/Glimt DWLLW, lost 17 rating points; LASK WWLWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Bodo/GlimtLASKBodo/Glimt
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
11/03
LASK
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
20 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bodo/Glimt | Draw | LASK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 29%3.49 | 5%21.74 | 2%43.67 |
| Level | 18%5.46 | 11%9.22 | 10%10.05 |
| LASK | 5%21.74 | 5%18.48 | 15%6.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.