Ried
23%
Fair odds 4.36Bookmakers 17%
LASK
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83Bookmakers 63%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. LASK: 55% here, 63% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ried | Draw | LASK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 23% | 23% | 55% |
| Elo model | 27% | 27% | 45% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| Best price on offer | 6.25 | 4.75 | 1.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours LASK
LASK are rated 129 points above Ried (1463 to 1334), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ried
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Ried's chance of winning and takes the same from LASK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours LASK
Expected goals 1.2 to 2.0. Ried score 0.9 a match against an average side (6th in Austrian Bundesliga); LASK concede 1.5 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Ried DDWWW, gained 32 rating points; LASK WWLWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Ried
LASK will have had 4 days' rest, Ried 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours LASK
Bookmakers rate LASK higher than the model does: Ried 17% against the model's 23%, LASK 63% against 55%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Ried won 3, drew 4 and lost 2 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RiedLASKRied
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
17 conceded
08/09
08/14
08/21
08/30
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/31
LASK
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
20 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 2-2
- 2-1
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ried | Draw | LASK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ried | 18%5.51 | 9%11.19 | 8%11.83 |
| Level | 5%21.10 | 11%9.27 | 24%4.24 |
| LASK | 0%— | 2%51.81 | 23%4.35 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Ried wins2LASK wins- L LASK vs Ried 4-1
- D Ried vs LASK 1-1
- W LASK vs Ried 1-3
- D Ried vs LASK 1-1
- D LASK vs Ried 1-1
- D Ried vs LASK 1-1
- W LASK vs Ried 0-2
- L LASK vs Ried 1-0
- W Ried vs LASK 1-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ried's side.