Alaves
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.05
La Coruna
25%
Fair odds 3.97
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Alaves | Draw | La Coruna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Alaves
Alaves are rated 30 points above La Coruna (1462 to 1432), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Alaves
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Alaves's chance of winning and takes the same from La Coruna's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Alaves
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Alaves score 1.2 a match against an average side (12th in La Liga); La Coruna concede 1.3 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours La Coruna
Alaves LDLLD, lost 16 rating points; La Coruna WLDLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
AlavesLa CorunaAlaves
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
08/20
08/28
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/31
La Coruna
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
13 conceded
08/24
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Alaves | Draw | La Coruna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 32%3.09 | 6%17.30 | 2%48.08 |
| Level | 15%6.63 | 15%6.58 | 11%9.18 |
| La Coruna | 2%52.08 | 4%25.51 | 13%7.86 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.