Espanol
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.38Bookmakers 41%
La Coruna
31%
Fair odds 3.20Bookmakers 30%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Espanol | Draw | La Coruna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Best price on offer | 2.38 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
Team news
- Urko González Out
- Kike García Out
- Roger Hinojo Out
- Jofre Carreras Doubtful
Sarabia's first match in charge; Sports Mole says the starting XI could be similar to the Villarreal win, and Javi Puado is back from injury and available.
- Bright Ede Out
- Zakaria Eddahchouri Out
Marc Casadó (collarbone) is training fully and could return to the squad, and Aubameyang is back from injury; neither is counted as an absence. Miguel Loureiro is competing with Noubi alongside José María Giménez at centre-back.
Allowing for this news: Espanol 41%, draw 27%, La Coruna 32% (xG 1.43 – 1.24). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: pericos.es, foxsports.com, futbolfantasy.com, el1900.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Espanol
Espanol are rated 20 points above La Coruna (1452 to 1432), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Espanol
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Espanol's chance of winning and takes the same from La Coruna's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Espanol
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.2. Espanol score 1.1 a match against an average side (16th in La Liga); La Coruna concede 1.3 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Espanol WLLDL, lost 14 rating points; La Coruna WLDLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Espanol 41%, La Coruna 30%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
EspanolLa CorunaEspanol
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/09
10/17
10/30
La Coruna
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
13 conceded
08/24
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 47%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Espanol | Draw | La Coruna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanol | 27%3.71 | 6%17.27 | 2%42.74 |
| Level | 14%7.29 | 16%6.43 | 13%7.90 |
| La Coruna | 2%52.63 | 4%23.04 | 17%5.96 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.