Lanus
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83Bookmakers 55%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Central Cordoba | Draw | Lanus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 19% | 27% | 55% |
| Elo model | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 18% | 27% | 55% |
| Best price on offer | 6.00 | 3.60 | 1.73 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lanus
Lanus are rated 119 points above Central Cordoba (1396 to 1277), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Central Cordoba
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Central Cordoba's chance of winning and takes the same from Lanus's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lanus
Expected goals 0.8 to 1.6. Central Cordoba score 0.5 a match against an average side (31st in Liga Profesional); Lanus concede 1.3 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Lanus
Central Cordoba LLLDD, lost 25 rating points; Lanus DDWWD, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Central Cordoba 18%, Lanus 55%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Central Cordoba won 1, drew 6 and lost 1 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Central CordobaLanus
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/05
10/10
10/19
10/26
11/02
Lanus
2/10 over 2.5
12 scored
5 conceded
08/25
08/29
09/06
09/14
09/22
10/03
10/12
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-3
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Central Cordoba | Draw | Lanus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Cordoba | 19%5.16 | 10%9.91 | 6%16.53 |
| Level | 1%— | 15%6.48 | 23%4.36 |
| Lanus | 0%— | 0%— | 25%4.00 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Lanus wins- D Lanus vs Central Cordoba 0-0
- D Lanus vs Central Cordoba 1-1
- W Lanus vs Central Cordoba 0-1
- D Central Cordoba vs Lanus 0-0
- D Central Cordoba vs Lanus 1-1
- D Central Cordoba vs Lanus 2-2
- D Central Cordoba vs Lanus 3-3
- L Lanus vs Central Cordoba 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Central Cordoba's side.