Sp Gijon
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.02
Las Palmas
25%
Fair odds 4.05
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sp Gijon | Draw | Las Palmas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Las Palmas
Las Palmas are rated 13 points above Sp Gijon (1397 to 1384), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sp Gijon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sp Gijon's chance of winning and takes the same from Las Palmas's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sp Gijon
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Sp Gijon score 1.0 a match against an average side (9th in La Liga 2); Las Palmas concede 1.6 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sp Gijon
Sp Gijon WLWWW, gained 17 rating points; Las Palmas WWLLD, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Las Palmas
Sp Gijon won 0, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sp GijonLas PalmasSp Gijon
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
13 conceded
08/28
09/05
09/13
09/19
09/27
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Las Palmas
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/20
09/27
10/04
10/11
10/17
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sp Gijon | Draw | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Gijon | 28%3.63 | 4%25.84 | 1%89.29 |
| Level | 19%5.27 | 15%6.58 | 9%11.70 |
| Las Palmas | 3%29.15 | 6%17.24 | 16%6.44 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Sp Gijon wins4Las Palmas wins- L Las Palmas vs Sp Gijon 1-0
- D Sp Gijon vs Las Palmas 0-0
- D Las Palmas vs Sp Gijon 1-1
- L Sp Gijon vs Las Palmas 0-1
- L Sp Gijon vs Las Palmas 0-1
- L Las Palmas vs Sp Gijon 1-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sp Gijon's side.