Grasshoppers
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.14Bookmakers 38%
Lausanne
28%
Fair odds 3.55Bookmakers 35%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Grasshoppers: 47% here, 38% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Grasshoppers | Draw | Lausanne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 38% | 26% | 35% |
| Best price on offer | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.66 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Grasshoppers and Lausanne are rated almost level (1270 and 1269).
-
Home advantage Favours Grasshoppers
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Grasshoppers's chance of winning and takes the same from Lausanne's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Grasshoppers
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.2. Grasshoppers score 0.7 a match against an average side (11th in Swiss Super League); Lausanne concede 2.4 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Grasshoppers DDLLL, lost 22 rating points; Lausanne LLLLL, lost 31 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Lausanne
Bookmakers rate Lausanne higher than the model does: Grasshoppers 38% against the model's 47%, Lausanne 35% against 28%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers won 6, drew 6 and lost 4 of the last 16 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GrasshoppersLausanneGrasshoppers
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
08/08
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/11
10/25
Lausanne
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
21 conceded
08/08
08/22
08/29
09/02
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Grasshoppers | Draw | Lausanne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grasshoppers | 29%3.44 | 5%20.75 | 2%60.24 |
| Level | 15%6.53 | 14%7.07 | 10%10.36 |
| Lausanne | 3%36.10 | 5%18.87 | 17%5.79 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Grasshoppers wins4Lausanne wins- D Lausanne vs Grasshoppers 1-1
- W Lausanne vs Grasshoppers 1-3
- L Grasshoppers vs Lausanne 2-3
- D Lausanne vs Grasshoppers 1-1
- W Grasshoppers vs Lausanne 3-1
- D Lausanne vs Grasshoppers 2-2
- D Grasshoppers vs Lausanne 2-2
- L Lausanne vs Grasshoppers 3-0
- D Lausanne vs Grasshoppers 0-0
- L Grasshoppers vs Lausanne 0-1
16 meetings in the data. Results shown from Grasshoppers's side.