St Etienne
Model pick
68%
Fair odds 1.48Bookmakers 69%
Laval
13%
Fair odds 7.82Bookmakers 12%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| St Etienne | Draw | Laval | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 68% | 20% | 13% |
| Elo model | 66% | 22% | 11% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Best price on offer | 1.37 | 5.25 | 8.75 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours St Etienne
St Etienne are rated 150 points above Laval (1447 to 1298), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours St Etienne
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to St Etienne's chance of winning and takes the same from Laval's.
-
Attack against defence Favours St Etienne
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.9. St Etienne score 1.2 a match against an average side (1st in Ligue 2); Laval concede 1.7 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
St Etienne LWWWD, barely moved; Laval WLDLD, lost 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (St Etienne 69%, Laval 12%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours St Etienne
St Etienne won 3, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
St EtienneLavalSt Etienne
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
11 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/31
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Laval
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
18 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/28
09/04
09/11
09/18
10/09
10/16
10/23
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | St Etienne | Draw | Laval |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Etienne | 43%2.31 | 4%28.57 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.66 | 11%8.85 | 5%19.46 |
| Laval | 3%29.15 | 4%25.25 | 7%13.99 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3St Etienne wins1Laval wins- W St Etienne vs Laval 2-1
- D Laval vs St Etienne 3-3
- D St Etienne vs Laval 0-0
- W Laval vs St Etienne 0-1
- L Laval vs St Etienne 2-1
- W St Etienne vs Laval 1-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from St Etienne's side.