Napoli
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.38Bookmakers 42%
Lazio
32%
Fair odds 3.16Bookmakers 32%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Napoli | Draw | Lazio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 42% | 27% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.15 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lazio
Lazio are rated 31 points above Napoli (1606 to 1574), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Napoli
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Napoli's chance of winning and takes the same from Lazio's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Napoli
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Napoli score 1.4 a match against an average side (7th in Serie A); Lazio concede 1.1 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Lazio
Napoli LLWDW, barely moved; Lazio WWWWW, gained 44 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Lazio
Napoli will have had 4 days' rest, Lazio 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Napoli 42%, Lazio 32%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Napoli won 4, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NapoliLazioNapoli
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
18 conceded
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/28
11/01
11/04
Lazio
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
8 conceded
08/24
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 55%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Napoli | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 29%3.49 | 7%14.35 | 3%30.30 |
| Level | 12%8.08 | 15%6.68 | 14%6.93 |
| Lazio | 1%69.44 | 3%29.33 | 14%6.94 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Napoli wins4Lazio wins- L Napoli vs Lazio 0-2
- W Lazio vs Napoli 0-2
- D Lazio vs Napoli 2-2
- L Napoli vs Lazio 0-1
- D Lazio vs Napoli 0-0
- L Napoli vs Lazio 1-2
- L Napoli vs Lazio 0-1
- W Lazio vs Napoli 1-2
- W Lazio vs Napoli 1-2
- W Napoli vs Lazio 4-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Napoli's side.