Troyes
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.49
Le Havre
33%
Fair odds 3.04
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Troyes | Draw | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Troyes and Le Havre are rated almost level (1412 and 1417).
-
Home advantage Favours Troyes
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Troyes's chance of winning and takes the same from Le Havre's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Troyes
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.3. Troyes score 1.1 a match against an average side (16th in Ligue 1); Le Havre concede 1.4 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Troyes
Troyes WDLLL, lost 11 rating points; Le Havre LLLLL, lost 29 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
TroyesLe HavreTroyes
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
17 conceded
05/09
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Le Havre
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Troyes | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes | 24%4.24 | 5%20.16 | 2%51.81 |
| Level | 15%6.80 | 16%6.33 | 12%8.18 |
| Le Havre | 2%42.19 | 5%19.38 | 19%5.19 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.