Marseille
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.61
Le Mans
17%
Fair odds 5.91
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Marseille | Draw | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Elo model | 65% | 23% | 12% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Marseille
Marseille are rated 143 points above Le Mans (1551 to 1408), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Marseille
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Marseille's chance of winning and takes the same from Le Mans's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Marseille
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.0. Marseille score 1.4 a match against an average side (6th in Ligue 1); Le Mans concede 1.6 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Marseille
Marseille WWWLW, gained 26 rating points; Le Mans LDLLW, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MarseilleLe MansMarseille
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/11
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Le Mans
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
18 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Marseille | Draw | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 42%2.37 | 5%20.70 | 2%64.10 |
| Level | 18%5.64 | 11%8.70 | 7%14.04 |
| Le Mans | 3%36.10 | 4%26.74 | 9%11.59 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.