Lazio
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.56
Lecce
14%
Fair odds 7.01
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lazio | Draw | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Elo model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lazio
Lazio are rated 183 points above Lecce (1606 to 1422), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lazio
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Lazio's chance of winning and takes the same from Lecce's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lazio
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.8. Lazio score 1.4 a match against an average side (6th in Serie A); Lecce concede 1.4 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Lazio
Lazio WWWWW, gained 44 rating points; Lecce LLLWL, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Lazio won 3, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LazioLecceLazio
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
8 conceded
08/24
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/27
11/01
Lecce
7/10 over 2.5
11 scored
21 conceded
08/23
08/31
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lazio | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 39%2.60 | 3%31.55 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.46 | 13%7.83 | 5%19.08 |
| Lecce | 4%26.74 | 5%21.23 | 9%11.44 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Lazio wins3Lecce wins- D Lecce vs Lazio 0-0
- W Lazio vs Lecce 2-0
- L Lazio vs Lecce 0-1
- W Lecce vs Lazio 1-2
- W Lazio vs Lecce 1-0
- L Lecce vs Lazio 2-1
- D Lazio vs Lecce 2-2
- L Lecce vs Lazio 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Lazio's side.