St. Gilloise
Model pick
74%
Fair odds 1.36Bookmakers 66%
Lech Poznan
10%
Fair odds 10.14Bookmakers 14%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| St. Gilloise | Draw | Lech Poznan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Elo model | 72% | 20% | 8% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 66% | 19% | 14% |
| Best price on offer | 1.43 | 5.12 | 7.30 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise are rated 194 points above Lech Poznan (1689 to 1496), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours St. Gilloise
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to St. Gilloise's chance of winning and takes the same from Lech Poznan's.
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Attack against defence Favours St. Gilloise
Expected goals 2.5 to 0.8. St. Gilloise score 1.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Belgian Pro League); Lech Poznan concede 1.4 (3rd best defence in Ekstraklasa).
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Last 5 matches Neutral
St. Gilloise WWWWD, gained 9 rating points; Lech Poznan LWWDW, gained 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Bookmakers' view Favours Lech Poznan
Bookmakers rate Lech Poznan higher than the model does: St. Gilloise 66% against the model's 74%, Lech Poznan 14% against 10%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
St. GilloiseLech PoznanSt. Gilloise
7/10 over 2.5
28 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Lech Poznan
9/10 over 2.5
23 scored
19 conceded
09/17
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | St. Gilloise | Draw | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise | 46%2.18 | 3%36.76 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.20 | 9%10.89 | 4%26.32 |
| Lech Poznan | 4%22.78 | 4%26.04 | 6%17.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.