Chelsea
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.16
Leeds
29%
Fair odds 3.51
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Chelsea | Draw | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Chelsea and Leeds are rated almost level (1586 and 1580).
-
Home advantage Favours Chelsea
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Chelsea's chance of winning and takes the same from Leeds's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Chelsea
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.3. Chelsea score 1.7 a match against an average side (7th in Premier League); Leeds concede 1.0 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Chelsea
Chelsea WLWWL, gained 8 rating points; Leeds LDDLD, lost 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Chelsea won 3, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ChelseaLeedsChelsea
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
17 conceded
05/24
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Leeds
3/10 over 2.5
9 scored
11 conceded
05/24
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Chelsea | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 28%3.60 | 5%19.76 | 2%49.75 |
| Level | 16%6.16 | 14%7.05 | 11%9.10 |
| Leeds | 3%35.59 | 5%20.04 | 16%6.25 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Chelsea wins2Leeds wins- D Chelsea vs Leeds 2-2
- L Leeds vs Chelsea 3-1
- W Chelsea vs Leeds 1-0
- L Leeds vs Chelsea 3-0
- W Leeds vs Chelsea 0-3
- W Chelsea vs Leeds 3-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Chelsea's side.