Blackpool
26%
Fair odds 3.91
Leicester
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.01
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Blackpool | Draw | Leicester | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 26% | 25% | 50% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Leicester
Leicester are rated 86 points above Blackpool (1401 to 1316), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Blackpool
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Blackpool's chance of winning and takes the same from Leicester's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Leicester
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.8. Blackpool score 0.8 a match against an average side (20th in League One); Leicester concede 1.5 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Leicester
Blackpool DLWLL, lost 20 rating points; Leicester DWLWW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BlackpoolLeicesterBlackpool
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
11/01
Leicester
8/10 over 2.5
20 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Blackpool | Draw | Leicester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool | 14%7.03 | 5%20.41 | 3%33.44 |
| Level | 10%10.01 | 14%7.22 | 17%5.77 |
| Leicester | 2%55.25 | 5%20.49 | 30%3.33 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.