Huddersfield
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.97
Leicester
25%
Fair odds 4.03
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Huddersfield | Draw | Leicester | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Huddersfield
Huddersfield are rated 16 points above Leicester (1417 to 1401), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Huddersfield
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Huddersfield's chance of winning and takes the same from Leicester's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Huddersfield
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Huddersfield score 1.2 a match against an average side (1st in League One); Leicester concede 1.5 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Huddersfield
Huddersfield DWWWW, gained 39 rating points; Leicester DWLWW, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
HuddersfieldLeicesterHuddersfield
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Leicester
8/10 over 2.5
20 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Huddersfield | Draw | Leicester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield | 26%3.82 | 4%28.57 | 1%90.09 |
| Level | 21%4.87 | 14%7.41 | 8%12.30 |
| Leicester | 5%21.69 | 6%15.58 | 16%6.25 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Huddersfield wins2Leicester wins- L Leicester vs Huddersfield 4-1
- L Huddersfield vs Leicester 0-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Huddersfield's side.