RB Leipzig
Model pick
67%
Fair odds 1.50
Lens
16%
Fair odds 6.33
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Lens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 67% | 18% | 16% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig are rated 17 points above Lens (1569 to 1552), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours RB Leipzig
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to RB Leipzig's chance of winning and takes the same from Lens's.
-
Attack against defence Favours RB Leipzig
Expected goals 2.6 to 1.2. RB Leipzig score 1.7 a match against an average side (2nd in Bundesliga); Lens concede 1.5 (16th best defence in Ligue 1).
-
Last 5 matches Favours RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig LWWLL, barely moved; Lens LLWLW, lost 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
RB LeipzigLensRB Leipzig
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
19 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/04
Lens
8/10 over 2.5
14 scored
24 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/18
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 4-1
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | RB Leipzig | Draw | Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 33%2.99 | 3%39.22 | 1%— |
| Level | 25%3.93 | 8%11.79 | 5%20.45 |
| Lens | 8%12.41 | 6%16.81 | 10%9.67 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.