AEK
Model pick
70%
Fair odds 1.44Bookmakers 78%
Levadeiakos
11%
Fair odds 9.03Bookmakers 7%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| AEK | Draw | Levadeiakos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| Elo model | 68% | 22% | 10% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 78% | 16% | 7% |
| Best price on offer | 1.20 | 6.50 | 15.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours AEK
AEK are rated 164 points above Levadeiakos (1512 to 1348), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours AEK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to AEK's chance of winning and takes the same from Levadeiakos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours AEK
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.8. AEK score 1.2 a match against an average side (2nd in Greek Super League); Levadeiakos concede 1.8 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Levadeiakos
AEK LLWLL, lost 23 rating points; Levadeiakos WDDLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Levadeiakos
AEK will have had 4 days' rest, Levadeiakos 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours AEK
Bookmakers rate AEK higher than the model does: AEK 78% against the model's 70%, Levadeiakos 7% against 11%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours AEK
AEK won 5, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AEKLevadeiakosAEK
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/20
10/24
11/01
11/04
Levadeiakos
3/10 over 2.5
3 scored
14 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 58%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | AEK | Draw | Levadeiakos |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK | 41%2.45 | 3%37.74 | 1%— |
| Level | 25%3.97 | 12%8.67 | 4%23.53 |
| Levadeiakos | 4%24.27 | 4%23.36 | 7%15.02 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5AEK wins0Levadeiakos wins- W AEK vs Levadeiakos 4-0
- W Levadeiakos vs AEK 0-1
- D AEK vs Levadeiakos 1-1
- W Levadeiakos vs AEK 0-3
- W AEK vs Levadeiakos 3-0
- W Levadeiakos vs AEK 0-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from AEK's side.