Celta
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.37Bookmakers 50%
Levante
31%
Fair odds 3.20Bookmakers 23%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Celta: 42% here, 50% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Celta | Draw | Levante | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 23% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 50% | 26% | 23% |
| Best price on offer | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Celta
Celta are rated 34 points above Levante (1492 to 1458), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Celta
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Celta's chance of winning and takes the same from Levante's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Celta
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.3. Celta score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in La Liga); Levante concede 1.3 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Celta LLDWW, barely moved; Levante LLWDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Levante
Celta will have had 3 days' rest, Levante 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Celta
Bookmakers rate Celta higher than the model does: Celta 50% against the model's 42%, Levante 23% against 31%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Celta won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CeltaLevanteCelta
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
09/13
09/16
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Levante
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
08/24
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/16
10/21
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 50%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Celta | Draw | Levante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta | 28%3.63 | 6%16.58 | 3%39.68 |
| Level | 13%7.47 | 15%6.54 | 13%7.77 |
| Levante | 2%54.95 | 4%23.98 | 16%6.11 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Celta wins1Levante wins- L Celta vs Levante 2-3
- W Levante vs Celta 1-2
- D Celta vs Levante 1-1
- W Levante vs Celta 0-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Celta's side.