Dinamo Zagreb
32%
Fair odds 3.17Bookmakers 21%
Leverkusen
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.29Bookmakers 58%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Dinamo Zagreb: 32% here, 21% with bookmakers; Leverkusen: 44% here, 58% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dinamo Zagreb | Draw | Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 32% | 25% | 44% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| Best price on offer | 4.87 | 4.61 | 1.64 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Leverkusen
Leverkusen are rated 98 points above Dinamo Zagreb (1590 to 1492), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Dinamo Zagreb
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Dinamo Zagreb's chance of winning and takes the same from Leverkusen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Leverkusen
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.7. Dinamo Zagreb score 1.3 a match against an average side; Leverkusen concede 1.1 (3rd best defence in Bundesliga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb WLWDD, gained 16 rating points; Leverkusen LLLWW, lost 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Leverkusen
Bookmakers rate Leverkusen higher than the model does: Dinamo Zagreb 21% against the model's 32%, Leverkusen 58% against 44%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Dinamo ZagrebLeverkusenDinamo Zagreb
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
20 conceded
11/27
12/11
01/22
01/29
02/19
02/26
09/16
10/15
10/22
11/05
Leverkusen
6/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dinamo Zagreb | Draw | Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 22%4.57 | 7%14.86 | 4%26.32 |
| Level | 9%11.40 | 13%7.46 | 16%6.28 |
| Leverkusen | 1%76.92 | 4%25.84 | 24%4.11 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.