FC Koln
30%
Fair odds 3.29Bookmakers 24%
Leverkusen
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.23Bookmakers 53%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| FC Koln | Draw | Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Elo model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| Best price on offer | 4.10 | 4.33 | 1.83 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Leverkusen
Leverkusen are rated 163 points above FC Koln (1590 to 1427), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours FC Koln
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to FC Koln's chance of winning and takes the same from Leverkusen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Leverkusen
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.7. FC Koln score 1.2 a match against an average side (12th in Bundesliga); Leverkusen concede 1.1 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours FC Koln
FC Koln DDLWL, barely moved; Leverkusen LLLWW, lost 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours FC Koln
Leverkusen will have had 3 days' rest, FC Koln 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Leverkusen
Bookmakers rate Leverkusen higher than the model does: FC Koln 24% against the model's 30%, Leverkusen 53% against 45%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Leverkusen
FC Koln won 2, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FC KolnLeverkusenFC Koln
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/01
Leverkusen
6/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 67%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | FC Koln | Draw | Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Koln | 19%5.32 | 5%18.28 | 3%34.13 |
| Level | 10%9.83 | 14%7.40 | 15%6.73 |
| Leverkusen | 2%53.48 | 5%20.45 | 28%3.64 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2FC Koln wins5Leverkusen wins- L FC Koln vs Leverkusen 1-2
- L Leverkusen vs FC Koln 2-0
- L FC Koln vs Leverkusen 0-2
- L Leverkusen vs FC Koln 3-0
- W Leverkusen vs FC Koln 1-2
- L FC Koln vs Leverkusen 1-2
- W Leverkusen vs FC Koln 0-1
- D FC Koln vs Leverkusen 2-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from FC Koln's side.