Marseille
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.57Bookmakers 64%
Levski Sofia
16%
Fair odds 6.36Bookmakers 16%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Marseille | Draw | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 21% | 16% |
| Elo model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Best price on offer | 1.50 | 4.71 | 6.54 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Marseille
Marseille are rated 183 points above Levski Sofia (1551 to 1368), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Marseille
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Marseille's chance of winning and takes the same from Levski Sofia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Marseille
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.0. Marseille score 1.4 a match against an average side (6th in Ligue 1); Levski Sofia concede 1.6.
-
Last 5 matches Favours Marseille
Marseille WWWLW, gained 26 rating points; Levski Sofia WWDL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Marseille 64%, Levski Sofia 16%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MarseilleLevski SofiaMarseille
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/11
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Levski Sofia
1/4 over 2.5
4 scored
3 conceded
09/17
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 58%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Marseille | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 36%2.81 | 3%35.97 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.29 | 11%8.95 | 5%20.49 |
| Levski Sofia | 5%18.66 | 6%17.33 | 11%9.48 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.