Doncaster
36%
Fair odds 2.77
Leyton Orient
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.71
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Doncaster | Draw | Leyton Orient | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient are rated 46 points above Doncaster (1332 to 1286), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Doncaster
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Doncaster's chance of winning and takes the same from Leyton Orient's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.4. Doncaster score 0.8 a match against an average side (21st in League One); Leyton Orient concede 1.7 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Leyton Orient
Doncaster LLWLL, lost 23 rating points; Leyton Orient WLLWD, gained 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Doncaster won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DoncasterLeyton OrientDoncaster
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
18 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Leyton Orient
4/10 over 2.5
15 scored
9 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Doncaster | Draw | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster | 22%4.49 | 6%17.06 | 3%35.84 |
| Level | 13%7.95 | 16%6.37 | 15%6.61 |
| Leyton Orient | 2%56.82 | 4%23.09 | 20%5.11 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Doncaster wins2Leyton Orient wins- W Doncaster vs Leyton Orient 3-0
- L Leyton Orient vs Doncaster 4-0
- L Leyton Orient vs Doncaster 1-0
- D Doncaster vs Leyton Orient 1-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Doncaster's side.