Shanghai Port
Model pick
77%
Fair odds 1.30Bookmakers 72%
Liaoning Tieren
9%
Fair odds 11.20Bookmakers 12%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Shanghai Port | Draw | Liaoning Tieren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Elo model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| Best price on offer | 1.30 | 6.00 | 8.50 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Shanghai Port
Shanghai Port are rated 179 points above Liaoning Tieren (1508 to 1329), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Shanghai Port
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Shanghai Port's chance of winning and takes the same from Liaoning Tieren's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Shanghai Port
Expected goals 2.9 to 0.9. Shanghai Port score 1.4 a match against an average side (4th in Chinese Super League); Liaoning Tieren concede 2.1 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Shanghai Port
Shanghai Port WWWDW, gained 35 rating points; Liaoning Tieren LWDLL, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Liaoning Tieren
Bookmakers rate Liaoning Tieren higher than the model does: Shanghai Port 72% against the model's 77%, Liaoning Tieren 12% against 9%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Shanghai PortLiaoning TierenShanghai Port
6/10 over 2.5
20 scored
10 conceded
08/01
08/09
08/14
08/19
08/23
08/28
09/05
10/09
10/18
10/24
Liaoning Tieren
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
21 conceded
08/02
08/08
08/15
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
10/11
10/17
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Shanghai Port | Draw | Liaoning Tieren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Port | 34%2.91 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 31%3.21 | 6%16.00 | 2%57.80 |
| Liaoning Tieren | 12%8.50 | 6%15.80 | 7%13.76 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Shanghai Port wins1Liaoning Tieren wins- L Liaoning Tieren vs Shanghai Port 3-2
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Shanghai Port's side.