Rennes
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.16Bookmakers 44%
Lille
28%
Fair odds 3.57Bookmakers 30%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rennes | Draw | Lille | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Best price on offer | 2.18 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Neutral
Rennes and Lille are rated almost level (1556 and 1560).
-
Home advantage Favours Rennes
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Rennes's chance of winning and takes the same from Lille's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rennes
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Rennes score 1.5 a match against an average side (3rd in Ligue 1); Lille concede 1.1 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Rennes DLWDL, lost 12 rating points; Lille DWDLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Lille
Bookmakers rate Lille higher than the model does: Rennes 44% against the model's 46%, Lille 30% against 28%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Lille
Rennes won 1, drew 4 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RennesLilleRennes
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
17 conceded
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/30
11/04
Lille
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
14 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 59%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rennes | Draw | Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 26%3.78 | 4%23.53 | 1%70.42 |
| Level | 17%5.84 | 14%6.90 | 9%10.56 |
| Lille | 3%30.30 | 6%17.15 | 18%5.68 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Rennes wins5Lille wins- L Rennes vs Lille 1-2
- W Lille vs Rennes 0-2
- L Rennes vs Lille 0-2
- L Lille vs Rennes 1-0
- D Lille vs Rennes 2-2
- D Rennes vs Lille 2-2
- L Rennes vs Lille 1-3
- D Lille vs Rennes 1-1
- D Lille vs Rennes 2-2
- L Rennes vs Lille 1-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Rennes's side.