Lyon
Model pick
78%
Fair odds 1.29
Lillestrom
8%
Fair odds 13.02
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lyon | Draw | Lillestrom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 78% | 15% | 8% |
| Elo model | 77% | 17% | 6% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Lyon
Lyon are rated 245 points above Lillestrom (1586 to 1341), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lyon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 5 points to Lyon's chance of winning and takes the same from Lillestrom's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lyon
Expected goals 2.6 to 0.7. Lyon score 1.4 a match against an average side (5th in Ligue 1); Lillestrom concede 2.0 (11th best defence in Eliteserien).
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Last 5 matches Favours Lillestrom
Lyon DWLLW, lost 14 rating points; Lillestrom LWWLW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
LyonLillestromLyon
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
12 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
10/09
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/26
11/01
11/05
Lillestrom
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lyon | Draw | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 37%2.69 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 31%3.20 | 7%13.83 | 1%77.52 |
| Lillestrom | 10%10.36 | 6%16.42 | 7%15.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.