Sarpsborg 08
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.31
Lillestrom
32%
Fair odds 3.17
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sarpsborg 08 | Draw | Lillestrom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Elo model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Sarpsborg 08 and Lillestrom are rated almost level (1338 and 1341).
-
Home advantage Favours Sarpsborg 08
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sarpsborg 08's chance of winning and takes the same from Lillestrom's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sarpsborg 08
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.4. Sarpsborg 08 score 0.9 a match against an average side (10th in Eliteserien); Lillestrom concede 2.0 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Lillestrom
Sarpsborg 08 LWLWL, lost 32 rating points; Lillestrom LWWLW, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Sarpsborg 08 won 4, drew 1 and lost 4 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sarpsborg 08LillestromSarpsborg 08
8/10 over 2.5
14 scored
20 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Lillestrom
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sarpsborg 08 | Draw | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 | 28%3.62 | 6%17.99 | 2%43.29 |
| Level | 14%7.31 | 14%7.19 | 12%8.67 |
| Lillestrom | 2%42.55 | 5%20.75 | 18%5.50 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Sarpsborg 08 wins4Lillestrom wins- L Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 4-0
- D Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 2-2
- W Sarpsborg 08 vs Lillestrom 1-0
- W Sarpsborg 08 vs Lillestrom 3-1
- W Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 1-2
- L Sarpsborg 08 vs Lillestrom 0-2
- L Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 1-0
- W Sarpsborg 08 vs Lillestrom 2-1
- L Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 2-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sarpsborg 08's side.