Charlton
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.53
Lincoln
33%
Fair odds 3.05
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Charlton | Draw | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 28% | 33% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lincoln
Lincoln are rated 54 points above Charlton (1439 to 1385), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Charlton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Charlton's chance of winning and takes the same from Lincoln's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Charlton score 0.8 a match against an average side (23rd in Championship); Lincoln concede 1.6 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Charlton LLLLD, lost 33 rating points; Lincoln LLWDL, lost 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Lincoln
Charlton won 1, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CharltonLincolnCharlton
5/10 over 2.5
5 scored
19 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Lincoln
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
19 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Charlton | Draw | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 23%4.33 | 5%20.37 | 2%54.64 |
| Level | 15%6.79 | 17%6.01 | 12%8.05 |
| Lincoln | 2%45.45 | 5%19.76 | 19%5.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Charlton wins3Lincoln wins- D Charlton vs Lincoln 2-2
- D Lincoln vs Charlton 0-0
- D Charlton vs Lincoln 1-1
- L Lincoln vs Charlton 3-1
- W Charlton vs Lincoln 2-1
- D Lincoln vs Charlton 0-0
- L Charlton vs Lincoln 1-2
- L Lincoln vs Charlton 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Charlton's side.