QPR
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.67Bookmakers 57%
Lincoln
18%
Fair odds 5.62Bookmakers 19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| QPR | Draw | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Best price on offer | 1.70 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
Team news
- Alfie Lloyd Out
- Jake Clarke-Salter Doubtful
- Amadou Mbengue Out
- Tariq Lamptey Out
- Nicolas Madsen Out
- Rumarn Burrell Out
Richard Kone was forced off against Burnley but reportedly came through unscathed and is expected to be available; Ilias Chair is returning from injury and is not counted as an absence.
- Ben House Out
- Ethan Wheatley Doubtful
- Mikkel Ladefoged Doubtful
- Conor McGrandles Doubtful
- Mason Melia Out
- Tendayi Darikwa Out
Head coach Chris Cohen is hopeful McGrandles and Ladefoged can return; Lincoln's Alfie Lloyd is with QPR, not Lincoln. Positions are inferred where sources did not state them.
Allowing for this news: QPR 61%, draw 22%, Lincoln 17% (xG 1.97 – 0.94). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, sports.yahoo.com, hounslowherald.com, livescore.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours QPR
QPR are rated 25 points above Lincoln (1464 to 1439), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours QPR
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to QPR's chance of winning and takes the same from Lincoln's.
-
Attack against defence Favours QPR
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.0. QPR score 1.2 a match against an average side (9th in Championship); Lincoln concede 1.6 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours QPR
QPR DLWLW, gained 8 rating points; Lincoln LLWDL, lost 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Lincoln
Bookmakers rate Lincoln higher than the model does: QPR 57% against the model's 60%, Lincoln 19% against 18%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
QPRLincolnQPR
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Lincoln
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
19 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 54%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | QPR | Draw | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 36%2.80 | 4%26.74 | 1%99.01 |
| Level | 21%4.81 | 13%7.79 | 7%15.15 |
| Lincoln | 4%26.81 | 5%20.20 | 11%9.44 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.