Egnatia
Model pick
59%
Fair odds 1.68
Lincoln Red Imps
19%
Fair odds 5.39
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Egnatia | Draw | Lincoln Red Imps | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 25% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Egnatia
Egnatia are rated 12 points above Lincoln Red Imps (1353 to 1340), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Egnatia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Egnatia's chance of winning and takes the same from Lincoln Red Imps's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Egnatia
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.1. Egnatia score 0.9 a match against an average side; Lincoln Red Imps concede 2.1.
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Last 5 matches Favours Lincoln Red Imps
Egnatia LDD, barely moved; Lincoln Red Imps WLLLW, gained 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
EgnatiaLincoln Red ImpsEgnatia
0/3 over 2.5
2 scored
4 conceded
10/15
10/22
11/05
Lincoln Red Imps
7/10 over 2.5
10 scored
23 conceded
12/09
10/23
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Egnatia | Draw | Lincoln Red Imps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia | 32%3.11 | 3%36.90 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.50 | 12%8.47 | 5%19.69 |
| Lincoln Red Imps | 6%18.12 | 7%15.13 | 13%7.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.