Club Brugge
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.84Bookmakers 22%
Liverpool
25%
Fair odds 4.03Bookmakers 56%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Club Brugge: 54% here, 22% with bookmakers; Liverpool: 25% here, 56% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Club Brugge | Draw | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 21% | 25% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Best price on offer | 4.90 | 4.57 | 1.75 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Club Brugge
Club Brugge are rated 62 points above Liverpool (1707 to 1646), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Club Brugge
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Club Brugge's chance of winning and takes the same from Liverpool's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Club Brugge
Expected goals 2.3 to 1.5. Club Brugge score 2.2 a match against an average side (1st in Belgian Pro League); Liverpool concede 1.0 (8th best defence in Premier League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Club Brugge
Club Brugge WWWWW, gained 32 rating points; Liverpool LLWWW, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Liverpool
Bookmakers rate Liverpool higher than the model does: Club Brugge 22% against the model's 54%, Liverpool 56% against 25%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Club BruggeLiverpoolClub Brugge
9/10 over 2.5
29 scored
13 conceded
09/04
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/04
Liverpool
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
15 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/25
11/01
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 72%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 3-2
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Club Brugge | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge | 35%2.82 | 6%16.58 | 3%29.50 |
| Level | 16%6.12 | 10%9.75 | 11%9.29 |
| Liverpool | 3%32.36 | 4%26.88 | 11%9.09 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.