Crystal Palace
29%
Fair odds 3.50Bookmakers 18%
Liverpool
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.15Bookmakers 60%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Crystal Palace: 29% here, 18% with bookmakers; Liverpool: 47% here, 60% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 25% | 47% |
| Elo model | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| Best price on offer | 5.50 | 4.35 | 1.63 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Liverpool
Liverpool are rated 121 points above Crystal Palace (1646 to 1524), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Crystal Palace
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Crystal Palace's chance of winning and takes the same from Liverpool's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Liverpool
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.7. Crystal Palace score 1.3 a match against an average side (18th in Premier League); Liverpool concede 1.0 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Liverpool
Crystal Palace DLLDL, lost 30 rating points; Liverpool LLWWW, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Liverpool
Bookmakers rate Liverpool higher than the model does: Crystal Palace 18% against the model's 29%, Liverpool 60% against 47%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Liverpool
Crystal Palace won 2, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Crystal PalaceLiverpoolCrystal Palace
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Liverpool
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
15 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/25
11/01
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 61%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Crystal Palace | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 16%6.22 | 5%19.01 | 3%30.67 |
| Level | 11%9.07 | 14%7.19 | 17%5.73 |
| Liverpool | 2%51.28 | 5%21.05 | 26%3.80 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Crystal Palace wins5Liverpool wins- L Liverpool vs Crystal Palace 3-1
- W Crystal Palace vs Liverpool 2-1
- D Liverpool vs Crystal Palace 1-1
- L Crystal Palace vs Liverpool 0-1
- W Liverpool vs Crystal Palace 0-1
- L Crystal Palace vs Liverpool 1-2
- D Crystal Palace vs Liverpool 0-0
- D Liverpool vs Crystal Palace 1-1
- L Crystal Palace vs Liverpool 1-3
- L Liverpool vs Crystal Palace 3-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Crystal Palace's side.