Inverness C
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.64Bookmakers 40%
Livingston
34%
Fair odds 2.93Bookmakers 32%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Inverness C | Draw | Livingston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.30 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Livingston
Livingston are rated 65 points above Inverness C (1388 to 1322), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Inverness C
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Inverness C's chance of winning and takes the same from Livingston's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.2. Inverness C score 0.8 a match against an average side (5th in Scottish Championship); Livingston concede 1.5 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Inverness C LWWLW, gained 15 rating points; Livingston WWDLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Inverness C
Bookmakers rate Inverness C higher than the model does: Inverness C 40% against the model's 38%, Livingston 32% against 34%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Inverness CLivingstonInverness C
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
Livingston
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
9 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/11
09/19
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 49%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Inverness C | Draw | Livingston |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inverness C | 20%4.91 | 4%24.21 | 1%70.42 |
| Level | 15%6.50 | 17%5.91 | 12%8.65 |
| Livingston | 3%38.31 | 6%16.92 | 22%4.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Inverness C wins0Livingston wins- D Livingston vs Inverness C 2-2
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Inverness C's side.