Queens Park
23%
Fair odds 4.32
Livingston
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 1.99
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Queens Park | Draw | Livingston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| Elo model | 25% | 27% | 48% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Livingston
Livingston are rated 144 points above Queens Park (1388 to 1243), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Queens Park
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Queens Park's chance of winning and takes the same from Livingston's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Livingston
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.6. Queens Park score 0.6 a match against an average side (9th in Scottish Championship); Livingston concede 1.5 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Livingston
Queens Park LLLWL, lost 18 rating points; Livingston WWDLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Queens Park won 1, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Queens ParkLivingstonQueens Park
4/10 over 2.5
7 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
09/25
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
Livingston
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
9 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/11
09/19
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Queens Park | Draw | Livingston |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queens Park | 13%7.63 | 5%22.08 | 2%44.64 |
| Level | 9%10.86 | 16%6.12 | 17%5.92 |
| Livingston | 1%74.63 | 5%21.14 | 32%3.16 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Queens Park wins2Livingston wins- L Livingston vs Queens Park 2-0
- L Livingston vs Queens Park 3-0
- W Queens Park vs Livingston 2-0
- D Livingston vs Queens Park 1-1
- D Queens Park vs Livingston 1-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Queens Park's side.