Antwerp
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.49Bookmakers 50%
Lommel SK
34%
Fair odds 2.90Bookmakers 26%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Antwerp: 40% here, 50% with bookmakers; Lommel SK: 34% here, 26% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Antwerp | Draw | Lommel SK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 25% | 34% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 50% | 25% | 26% |
| Best price on offer | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.75 |
Team news
- Arthur Vermeeren Doubtful
Antwerp will monitor Vermeeren's situation in the coming days; no final decision on his availability had been made as of the latest report.
No absences reported
No recent (last three days) Lommel injury or suspension reports found; older items found were not dated to this fixture.
Allowing for this news: Antwerp 40%, draw 26%, Lommel SK 35% (xG 1.54 – 1.43). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: voetbalkrant.com, voetbalnieuws.be, whoscored.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lommel SK
Lommel SK are rated 48 points above Antwerp (1521 to 1473), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Antwerp
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Antwerp's chance of winning and takes the same from Lommel SK's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.4. Antwerp score 1.2 a match against an average side (13th in Belgian Pro League); Lommel SK concede 1.3 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Lommel SK
Antwerp LWLLL, lost 13 rating points; Lommel SK WDWDL, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Antwerp
Bookmakers rate Antwerp higher than the model does: Antwerp 50% against the model's 40%, Lommel SK 26% against 34%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AntwerpLommel SKAntwerp
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
22 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/24
11/01
Lommel SK
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
11 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/23
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 61%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Antwerp | Draw | Lommel SK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | 25%3.97 | 6%16.98 | 3%34.97 |
| Level | 13%7.52 | 14%7.14 | 14%7.38 |
| Lommel SK | 2%45.87 | 5%22.08 | 19%5.40 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.