Le Havre
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.40Bookmakers 34%
Lorient
31%
Fair odds 3.25Bookmakers 38%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Le Havre: 42% here, 34% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Le Havre | Draw | Lorient | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 34% | 29% | 38% |
| Best price on offer | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lorient
Lorient are rated 76 points above Le Havre (1493 to 1417), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Le Havre
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Le Havre's chance of winning and takes the same from Lorient's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Le Havre
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Le Havre score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in Ligue 1); Lorient concede 1.3 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Lorient
Le Havre LLLLL, lost 29 rating points; Lorient LDWWL, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Lorient
Bookmakers rate Lorient higher than the model does: Le Havre 34% against the model's 42%, Lorient 38% against 31%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Le Havre
Le Havre won 2, drew 2 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Le HavreLorientLe Havre
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/30
Lorient
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
10 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 47%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Le Havre | Draw | Lorient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 24%4.14 | 5%21.19 | 2%59.88 |
| Level | 16%6.37 | 17%6.05 | 12%8.62 |
| Lorient | 2%41.49 | 5%19.27 | 18%5.54 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Le Havre wins0Lorient wins- W Lorient vs Le Havre 0-2
- D Le Havre vs Lorient 1-1
- D Lorient vs Le Havre 3-3
- W Le Havre vs Lorient 3-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Le Havre's side.