Seattle Sounders
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.70Bookmakers 49%
Los Angeles FC
35%
Fair odds 2.84Bookmakers 26%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Seattle Sounders: 37% here, 49% with bookmakers; Los Angeles FC: 35% here, 26% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Seattle Sounders | Draw | Los Angeles FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Best price on offer | 1.93 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC are rated 35 points above Seattle Sounders (1387 to 1352), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Seattle Sounders
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Seattle Sounders's chance of winning and takes the same from Los Angeles FC's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.3. Seattle Sounders score 0.8 a match against an average side (27th in MLS); Los Angeles FC concede 1.8 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Seattle Sounders LLDDL, lost 27 rating points; Los Angeles FC LDDWD, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Seattle Sounders
Bookmakers rate Seattle Sounders higher than the model does: Seattle Sounders 49% against the model's 37%, Los Angeles FC 26% against 35%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders won 1, drew 3 and lost 8 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Seattle SoundersLos Angeles FCSeattle Sounders
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
15 conceded
09/20
09/24
09/27
10/02
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/01
Los Angeles FC
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
16 conceded
09/06
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/26
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Seattle Sounders | Draw | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 27%3.73 | 6%15.75 | 2%42.55 |
| Level | 10%10.34 | 17%6.03 | 13%7.76 |
| Los Angeles FC | 1%90.91 | 4%26.25 | 20%4.89 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Seattle Sounders wins8Los Angeles FC wins- L Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders 1-0
- L Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders 4-0
- W Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 5-2
- D Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders 1-1
- L Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 0-3
- L Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders 2-1
- L Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 0-1
- L Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders 1-0
- D Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC 0-0
- L Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders 2-1
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Seattle Sounders's side.