Real Salt Lake
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.97Bookmakers 55%
Los Angeles Galaxy
26%
Fair odds 3.84Bookmakers 23%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Real Salt Lake | Draw | Los Angeles Galaxy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Best price on offer | 1.73 | 4.33 | 4.40 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles Galaxy are rated almost level (1334 and 1340).
-
Home advantage Favours Real Salt Lake
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Real Salt Lake's chance of winning and takes the same from Los Angeles Galaxy's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Real Salt Lake
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.3. Real Salt Lake score 0.9 a match against an average side (18th in MLS); Los Angeles Galaxy concede 2.2 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake LWWWD, gained 27 rating points; Los Angeles Galaxy WDDWL, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Real Salt Lake
Bookmakers rate Real Salt Lake higher than the model does: Real Salt Lake 55% against the model's 51%, Los Angeles Galaxy 23% against 26%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Los Angeles Galaxy
Real Salt Lake won 3, drew 4 and lost 5 of the last 12 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Real Salt LakeLos Angeles GalaxyReal Salt Lake
7/10 over 2.5
14 scored
14 conceded
09/13
09/20
09/24
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
10/31
Los Angeles Galaxy
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
20 conceded
09/06
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/12
10/15
10/18
10/26
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Real Salt Lake | Draw | Los Angeles Galaxy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake | 29%3.40 | 4%22.68 | 2%59.17 |
| Level | 18%5.62 | 12%8.12 | 9%11.11 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 4%25.32 | 6%17.73 | 16%6.34 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Real Salt Lake wins5Los Angeles Galaxy wins- L Los Angeles Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake 2-1
- L Los Angeles Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake 2-0
- W Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy 2-0
- L Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy 0-1
- D Los Angeles Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake 2-2
- D Los Angeles Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake 2-2
- L Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy 2-3
- D Los Angeles Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake 1-1
- W Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy 1-0
- W Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1
12 meetings in the data. Results shown from Real Salt Lake's side.