St. Gallen
17%
Fair odds 6.03Bookmakers 41%
Lugano
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.58Bookmakers 34%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. St. Gallen: 17% here, 41% with bookmakers; Lugano: 63% here, 34% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| St. Gallen | Draw | Lugano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| Elo model | 29% | 28% | 44% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Best price on offer | 2.30 | 3.85 | 2.71 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lugano
Lugano are rated 119 points above St. Gallen (1520 to 1402), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours St. Gallen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to St. Gallen's chance of winning and takes the same from Lugano's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lugano
Expected goals 1.1 to 2.3. St. Gallen score 1.0 a match against an average side (9th in Swiss Super League); Lugano concede 1.2 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Lugano
St. Gallen WLWWL, gained 7 rating points; Lugano WWWWW, gained 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours St. Gallen
Lugano will have had 3 days' rest, St. Gallen 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours St. Gallen
Bookmakers rate St. Gallen higher than the model does: St. Gallen 41% against the model's 17%, Lugano 34% against 63%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours St. Gallen
St. Gallen won 8, drew 6 and lost 6 of the last 20 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
St. GallenLuganoSt. Gallen
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
08/09
08/30
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/11
10/24
10/31
Lugano
10/10 over 2.5
33 scored
11 conceded
09/06
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 2-2
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | St. Gallen | Draw | Lugano |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gallen | 14%7.00 | 9%10.63 | 12%8.46 |
| Level | 2%40.65 | 9%11.53 | 28%3.57 |
| Lugano | 0%— | 1%95.24 | 24%4.14 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
8St. Gallen wins6Lugano wins- L Lugano vs St. Gallen 4-1
- W Lugano vs St. Gallen 1-2
- D St. Gallen vs Lugano 1-1
- W Lugano vs St. Gallen 1-3
- W St. Gallen vs Lugano 1-0
- D Lugano vs St. Gallen 1-1
- W St. Gallen vs Lugano 2-1
- D Lugano vs St. Gallen 1-1
- W Lugano vs St. Gallen 0-1
- L St. Gallen vs Lugano 2-3
20 meetings in the data. Results shown from St. Gallen's side.