Burton
33%
Fair odds 2.99
Luton
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.55
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Burton | Draw | Luton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 27% | 39% |
| Elo model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Luton
Luton are rated 107 points above Burton (1418 to 1311), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Burton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Burton's chance of winning and takes the same from Luton's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.4. Burton score 0.8 a match against an average side (19th in League One); Luton concede 1.5 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Luton
Burton LWDDL, lost 7 rating points; Luton DWWWW, gained 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BurtonLutonBurton
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Luton
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
11 conceded
09/05
09/10
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Burton | Draw | Luton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burton | 20%5.13 | 5%19.42 | 2%43.10 |
| Level | 13%7.96 | 16%6.21 | 15%6.80 |
| Luton | 2%51.81 | 5%20.28 | 23%4.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Burton wins1Luton wins- D Luton vs Burton 1-1
- L Burton vs Luton 0-3
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Burton's side.