Aarhus
Model pick
66%
Fair odds 1.52
Lyngby
14%
Fair odds 7.26
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Aarhus | Draw | Lyngby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 66% | 21% | 14% |
| Elo model | 63% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Aarhus
Aarhus are rated 122 points above Lyngby (1402 to 1280), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Aarhus
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Aarhus's chance of winning and takes the same from Lyngby's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Aarhus
Expected goals 2.1 to 0.9. Aarhus score 1.0 a match against an average side (6th in Danish Superliga); Lyngby concede 2.2 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Aarhus
Aarhus DLWDD, barely moved; Lyngby WLDLL, lost 19 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Aarhus
Aarhus won 5, drew 2 and lost 0 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AarhusLyngbyAarhus
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Lyngby
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
21 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Aarhus | Draw | Lyngby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus | 34%2.95 | 1%67.57 | 0%— |
| Level | 25%3.92 | 11%9.08 | 3%38.17 |
| Lyngby | 7%14.64 | 7%13.85 | 11%8.84 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Aarhus wins0Lyngby wins- D Lyngby vs Aarhus 2-2
- W Aarhus vs Lyngby 2-1
- D Lyngby vs Aarhus 0-0
- W Lyngby vs Aarhus 0-2
- W Aarhus vs Lyngby 1-0
- W Lyngby vs Aarhus 0-1
- W Aarhus vs Lyngby 1-0
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Aarhus's side.