Silkeborg
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.09Bookmakers 39%
Lyngby
28%
Fair odds 3.59Bookmakers 34%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Silkeborg: 48% here, 39% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Silkeborg | Draw | Lyngby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 23% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 39% | 26% | 34% |
| Best price on offer | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Silkeborg
Silkeborg are rated 34 points above Lyngby (1314 to 1280), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Silkeborg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Silkeborg's chance of winning and takes the same from Lyngby's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Silkeborg
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.3. Silkeborg score 0.8 a match against an average side (10th in Danish Superliga); Lyngby concede 2.2 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Silkeborg LDLDW, lost 9 rating points; Lyngby WLDLL, lost 19 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Lyngby
Bookmakers rate Lyngby higher than the model does: Silkeborg 39% against the model's 48%, Lyngby 34% against 28%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Silkeborg won 4, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SilkeborgLyngbySilkeborg
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
20 conceded
08/16
08/24
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Lyngby
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
21 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Silkeborg | Draw | Lyngby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silkeborg | 29%3.45 | 5%20.96 | 2%56.18 |
| Level | 16%6.21 | 13%7.51 | 10%10.32 |
| Lyngby | 3%31.55 | 5%18.55 | 17%5.95 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Silkeborg wins4Lyngby wins- W Lyngby vs Silkeborg 0-4
- L Lyngby vs Silkeborg 2-0
- W Silkeborg vs Lyngby 2-1
- L Silkeborg vs Lyngby 0-1
- D Lyngby vs Silkeborg 2-2
- L Lyngby vs Silkeborg 2-0
- W Silkeborg vs Lyngby 5-0
- W Silkeborg vs Lyngby 1-0
- D Lyngby vs Silkeborg 1-1
- L Silkeborg vs Lyngby 0-2
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Silkeborg's side.