Brest
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.37Bookmakers 34%
Lyon
32%
Fair odds 3.13Bookmakers 39%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Brest: 42% here, 34% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Brest | Draw | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Best price on offer | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.52 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lyon
Lyon are rated 91 points above Brest (1586 to 1495), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Brest
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Brest's chance of winning and takes the same from Lyon's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brest
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Brest score 1.4 a match against an average side (8th in Ligue 1); Lyon concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Brest
Brest WLDWL, gained 14 rating points; Lyon DWLLW, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Brest
Lyon will have had 3 days' rest, Brest 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Lyon
Bookmakers rate Lyon higher than the model does: Brest 34% against the model's 42%, Lyon 39% against 32%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Brest won 3, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BrestLyonBrest
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
13 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/23
11/02
Lyon
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
12 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
10/09
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/26
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 51%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Brest | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | 26%3.91 | 5%19.61 | 2%49.02 |
| Level | 15%6.87 | 14%6.90 | 11%8.70 |
| Lyon | 3%38.91 | 5%19.23 | 19%5.28 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Brest wins4Lyon wins- L Lyon vs Brest 2-1
- D Brest vs Lyon 0-0
- L Lyon vs Brest 2-1
- W Brest vs Lyon 2-1
- L Lyon vs Brest 4-3
- W Brest vs Lyon 1-0
- D Lyon vs Brest 0-0
- L Brest vs Lyon 2-4
- W Brest vs Lyon 2-1
- D Lyon vs Brest 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Brest's side.