Lille
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.45
Lyon
32%
Fair odds 3.13
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lille | Draw | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lyon
Lyon are rated 26 points above Lille (1586 to 1560), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lille
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Lille's chance of winning and takes the same from Lyon's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lille
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Lille score 1.2 a match against an average side (11th in Ligue 1); Lyon concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Lille DWDLD, barely moved; Lyon DWLLW, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Lyon
Lille won 2, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LilleLyonLille
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
14 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/03
Lyon
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
12 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
10/09
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/26
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lille | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 27%3.74 | 6%16.84 | 2%42.74 |
| Level | 13%7.76 | 16%6.21 | 13%7.73 |
| Lyon | 2%60.24 | 4%23.87 | 17%5.81 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Lille wins5Lyon wins- L Lyon vs Lille 1-0
- L Lille vs Lyon 0-1
- L Lyon vs Lille 2-1
- D Lille vs Lyon 1-1
- L Lille vs Lyon 3-4
- W Lyon vs Lille 0-2
- D Lille vs Lyon 3-3
- L Lyon vs Lille 1-0
- W Lyon vs Lille 0-1
- D Lille vs Lyon 0-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Lille's side.