Hamburg
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.17Bookmakers 40%
M'gladbach
30%
Fair odds 3.34Bookmakers 33%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hamburg | Draw | M'gladbach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 40% | 26% | 33% |
| Best price on offer | 2.46 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
Team news
- Fábio Vieira Out
- Bilal Nadir Out
- Nicolai Remberg Out
- Nicolas Capaldo Out
- Yussuf Poulsen Doubtful
- Sebastiaan Bornauw Doubtful
Expected XI (3-3-2-2) per bundesliga.com-based previews: Heuer Fernandes; Omari, Bornauw, Torunarigha; El Ouahdi, Sambi Lokonga, Møller Wolfe; Grønbæk, Muheim; Moffi, Daka. Sources conflict on Poulsen and Bornauw, so late fitness calls matter.
- Hugo Bolin Out
- Moritz Nicolas Out
- Nicolas Kühn Out
- Tim Kleindienst Out
- Jan Leszczynski Out
- Enzo Leopold Out
- Daiki Hashioka Doubtful
Franck Honorat, Kevin Diks and Fritz Fleck are back in the matchday squad. Daniel Batz is expected in goal; expected XI (3-4-2-1): Batz; Itakura, Sander, Chiarodia; Scally, Uno, Neuhaus, Ullrich; Hack, Mohya; Lidberg.
Allowing for this news: Hamburg 46%, draw 24%, M'gladbach 30% (xG 1.78 – 1.41). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date.
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Hamburg and M'gladbach are rated almost level (1440 and 1440).
-
Home advantage Favours Hamburg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hamburg's chance of winning and takes the same from M'gladbach's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hamburg
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.4. Hamburg score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in Bundesliga); M'gladbach concede 1.7 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hamburg
Hamburg LLWWW, gained 10 rating points; M'gladbach DWLLL, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours M'gladbach
Bookmakers rate M'gladbach higher than the model does: Hamburg 40% against the model's 46%, M'gladbach 33% against 30%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HamburgM'gladbachHamburg
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
22 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
11/01
M'gladbach
9/10 over 2.5
16 scored
25 conceded
05/09
05/16
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 57%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hamburg | Draw | M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg | 29%3.42 | 5%18.48 | 2%42.37 |
| Level | 15%6.87 | 13%7.94 | 11%9.29 |
| M'gladbach | 3%34.97 | 5%20.08 | 17%5.79 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Hamburg wins0M'gladbach wins- D Hamburg vs M'gladbach 0-0
- D M'gladbach vs Hamburg 0-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hamburg's side.