Werder Bremen
Model pick
62%
Fair odds 1.61
M'gladbach
18%
Fair odds 5.63
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Werder Bremen | Draw | M'gladbach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen are rated 45 points above M'gladbach (1485 to 1440), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Werder Bremen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Werder Bremen's chance of winning and takes the same from M'gladbach's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Werder Bremen
Expected goals 2.3 to 1.2. Werder Bremen score 1.4 a match against an average side (8th in Bundesliga); M'gladbach concede 1.7 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen WWDDW, gained 29 rating points; M'gladbach DWLLL, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Werder Bremen won 2, drew 4 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Werder BremenM'gladbachWerder Bremen
6/10 over 2.5
17 scored
17 conceded
05/09
05/16
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/24
10/31
M'gladbach
9/10 over 2.5
16 scored
25 conceded
05/09
05/16
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Werder Bremen | Draw | M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 35%2.82 | 3%30.58 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.61 | 10%9.65 | 6%17.48 |
| M'gladbach | 5%18.38 | 6%17.64 | 11%8.77 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Werder Bremen wins2M'gladbach wins- D Werder Bremen vs M'gladbach 1-1
- W M'gladbach vs Werder Bremen 0-4
- L Werder Bremen vs M'gladbach 2-4
- L M'gladbach vs Werder Bremen 4-1
- D Werder Bremen vs M'gladbach 2-2
- D M'gladbach vs Werder Bremen 2-2
- D M'gladbach vs Werder Bremen 2-2
- W Werder Bremen vs M'gladbach 5-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Werder Bremen's side.